The proliferation of e-commerce and urbanization has significantly intensified delivery operations in urban areas, boosting the volume and complexity of delivery demand. Data-driven predictive methods, especially those utilizing machine learning techniques, have emerged to handle these complexities in urban delivery demand management problems. One particularly pressing problem that has not yet been sufficiently studied is the joint estimation and prediction of city-wide delivery demand. To this end, we formulate this problem as a graph-based spatiotemporal learning task. First, a message-passing neural network model is formalized to capture the interaction between demand patterns of associated regions. Second, by exploiting recent advances in large language models, we extract general geospatial knowledge encodings from the unstructured locational data and integrate them into the demand predictor. Last, to encourage the cross-city transferability of the model, an inductive training scheme is developed in an end-to-end routine. Extensive empirical results on two real-world delivery datasets, including eight cities in China and the US, demonstrate that our model significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in these challenging tasks.

The dramatic growth of e-shopping will undoubtedly cause significant impacts on travel demand. As a result, transportation modeller's ability to model e-shopping demand is becoming increasingly important. This study developed models to predict households' weekly home delivery frequencies. We used both classical econometric and machine learning techniques to obtain the best model. It is found that socioeconomic factors such as having an online grocery membership, household members' average age, the percentage of male household members, the number of workers in the household and various land-use factors influence home delivery demand. This study also compared the interpretations and performances of the machine learning models and the classical econometric model. Agreement is found in the variable's effects identified through the machine learning and econometric models. However, with similar recall accuracy, the ordered probit model, a classical econometric model, can accurately predict the aggregate distribution of household delivery demand. In contrast, both machine learning models failed to match the observed distribution.

The Dynamic Pickup and Delivery Problem (DPDP) is aimed at dynamically scheduling vehicles among multiple sites in order to minimize the cost when delivery orders are not known a priori. Although DPDP plays an important role in modern logistics and supply chain management, state-of-the-art DPDP algorithms are still limited on their solution quality and efficiency. In practice, they fail to provide a scalable solution as the numbers of vehicles and sites become large. In this paper, we propose a data-driven approach, Spatial-Temporal Aided Double Deep Graph Network (ST-DDGN), to solve industry-scale DPDP. In our method, the delivery demands are first forecast using spatial-temporal prediction method, which guides the neural network to perceive spatial-temporal distribution of delivery demand when dispatching vehicles. Besides, the relationships of individuals such as vehicles are modelled by establishing a graph-based value function. ST-DDGN incorporates attention-based graph embedding with Double DQN (DDQN). As such, it can make the inference across vehicles more efficiently compared with traditional methods. Our method is entirely data driven and thus adaptive, i.e., the relational representation of adjacent vehicles can be learned and corrected by ST-DDGN from data periodically. We have conducted extensive experiments over real-world data to evaluate our solution. The results show that ST-DDGN reduces 11.27% number of the used vehicles and decreases 13.12% total transportation cost on average over the strong baselines, including the heuristic algorithm deployed in our UAT (User Acceptance Test) environment and a variety of vanilla DRL methods. We are due to fully deploy our solution into our online logistics system and it is estimated that millions of USD logistics cost can be saved per year.

Many machine intelligence techniques are developed in E-commerce and one of the most essential components is the representation of IDs, including user ID, item ID, product ID, store ID, brand ID, category ID etc. The classical encoding based methods (like one-hot encoding) are inefficient in that it suffers sparsity problems due to its high dimension, and it cannot reflect the relationships among IDs, either homogeneous or heterogeneous ones. In this paper, we propose an embedding based framework to learn and transfer the representation of IDs. As the the implicit feedbacks of users, a tremendous amount of item ID sequences can be easily collected from the interactive sessions. By jointly using these informative sequences and the structural connections among IDs, all types of IDs can be embedded into one low-dimensional semantic space. Subsequently, the learned representations are utilized and transferred in four scenarios: (i) measuring the similarity between items, (ii) transferring from seen items to unseen items, (iii) transferring across different domains, (iv) transferring across different tasks. We deploy and evaluate the proposed approach in Hema App and the results validate its effectiveness.